This study examines how minority supervisor turnover influences minority employee turnover by integrating social categorization theory and turnover event theory. Using quarterly data from 324 units of a U.S. federal agency between 2019-2023, we investigate the relationship between minority supervisor turnover events and minority employee turnover rates, along with key contextual moderators. Our findings reveal that minority supervisor turnover events are positively associated with minority employee turnover rates, with consistent patterns across Asian, Black, and Hispanic employees. This relationship is strengthened in contexts of high collective turnover rates, suggesting that organizational turnover patterns amplify the impact of minority supervisor departures. Interestingly, while we predicted that organizational minority representation would moderate this relationship, our results show no significant interaction effect. Additionally, we find that COVID-19 pandemic effects moderate these relationships, with the supervisor-employee turnover connection weakening during peak pandemic periods. Our study contributes to turnover literature by demonstrating how supervisor departures trigger subsequent employee turnover through social identity and event interpretation mechanisms, while highlighting the crucial role of organizational context in shaping these dynamics.
