Populism is often known as a thin-centered ideology, where leaders claim to represent ordinary people against elites. We study how firms respond to the ideology of populist rulers. While existing management literature frequently attributes the uncertainty faced by firms to the unpredictable and contradictory policies of populist leaders, we argue that their ideological stances are critical drivers in shaping corporate decision-making, particularly when multiple ideological dimensions overlap. By extending transaction cost economics to the populist context, our findings indicate that traditional left-right political divisions are becoming less relevant for corporate investment decisions. Instead, a new and more destabilizing divide has emerged: nationalist-conservative versus cosmopolitan-progressive values. Populist leaders with nationalist-conservative views intensify negative impacts on corporate investment, while those with progressive-cosmopolitan leanings tend to moderate it. Moreover, when political and cultural dimensions overlap, left-wing nationalist-conservative populists generate the highest levels of uncertainty for firms. Our study offers both theoretical and empirical contributions by advancing the understanding of populist ideologies and their influence on corporate strategies, an increasingly critical issue in today's politically polarized environments.
