Although scholars have highlighted the importance of a psychological safety climate for team performance, relatively few studies have examined how leaders influence its strength over time. Drawing on social learning theory, we explore how leaders’ perceptions - specifically their overestimation of psychological safety - impact psychological safety within their team. Using longitudinal data from 522 team members from 88 teams over four time points, we employ consensus emergence modeling (CEM) to examine how leader overestimation influences psychological safety climate strength. Our findings highlight that leaders who overestimate psychological safety in their teams can hinder the emergence of a strong psychological safety climate over time. Additionally, correlated random effects modeling (CRE) reveals a positive relation between psychological safety and work ability - a key work outcome linked to well-being and productivity. However, this effect was diminished when the team climate was weak. These results warn about leader overestimation of psychological safety climate in teams. Theoretical and practical implications of our research as well as limitations are discussed.
