This study examines how beliefs about natural ability versus developed skill influence perceptions of leadership potential, and how these effects vary by gender. Employing an experimental vignette study with 204 participants, we investigate whether individuals perceived as having natural talent garner higher performance expectations from peers compared to their “striver” counterparts, and how these expectations translate into perceptions of emergent leadership. Drawing on Attribution Theory (Heider, 1958) and Role Congruity Theory (Eagly & Karau, 2002), we find that individuals’ naturalness bias beliefs distinctly influence the performance expectations they set for others who they perceive as being naturally talented. These elevated performance expectations, in turn, led to stronger perceptions of leadership potential. However, this effect was significantly impacted by gender, whereby females perceived as being naturally talented received lower performance expectations from raters than males of the same designation. Additionally, this impact materializes indirectly on individuals’ emergent leadership, showing that naturalness bias hinders females’ ability to emerge as leaders. These findings suggest that emphasizing natural talent in leadership evaluation may perpetuate gender disparities by differentially affecting how men and women are perceived as potential leaders.
